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Tracking Public Opinion in Ukraine Before and After Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion

Research project made possible by the National Science Foundation RAPID program (SES 2309901)

Mikhail Alexseev, Professor, Political Science, SDSU (Principal Investigator)
Henry E. Hale, Professor, Political Science & International Affairs, George Washington University (Co-Principal Investigator)
Serhii Dembitskyi, Professor, Deputy Director, Institute of Sociology, Ukraine National Academy of Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine

Principal Goals

To provide systematic assessment of the social forces sustaining support for political freedoms and for democracy as a system of government in states under military attack from expansionist autocracies using survey and focus group data from Ukraine before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion and at different phases of the ongoing war.
To assess how different kinds of war exposure and related circumstances affect support for democracy and political freedoms among individuals in the course of an extended interstate war; with the data collected on respondents’ preferences for political freedoms and institutions, specific war impacts on individuals (personal loss, stress, dislocation, combat zone exposure), expectations of war duration and outcomes; civic national identity; international alliance preferences; and other individual characteristics and attitudes.
To identify and evaluate external impacts likely to help the consolidation of free polities and societies that share America’s foundational political values and support its military alliances.
To contribute to foreign policy dialog as well as to public knowledge and education serving diverse student populations through publications, presentations, media interviews, and course content informed by the findings.

Major Activities

All proposed fieldwork activities have been completed:

I. Opinion surveys

Wave 1 (June-July 2023):

Tracking poll of the same respondents initially interviewed in the November 2021 Ukraine Monitoring Survey of the Ukraine National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology (UNASIS) and reinterviewed in June-July 2022 (telephone) in territories under Ukraine’s government control: N=412.
Supplementary survey of new respondents (telephone) in territories under Ukraine’s government control: N=869.

Wave 2 (December 2023-January 2024):

Tracking poll of the same respondents initially interviewed in the November 2021 Ukraine Monitoring Survey of the Ukraine National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology (UNASIS) (in-person questionnaire) and reinterviewed in June-July 2022 (telephone) and in June-July 2023 (telephone) in territories under Ukraine’s government control: N=371.
Repeat survey of respondents first interviewed in the supplementary new sample in Wave 1 above: N=488.

Wave 3: (April-May 2024):

Tracking poll of the same respondents initially interviewed in the November 2021 Ukraine Monitoring Survey of the Ukraine National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology (UNASIS) (in-person questionnaire) and reinterviewed in June-July 2022 (telephone) and in June-July 2023 (telephone) in territories under Ukraine’s government control: N=253.
Repeat survey of respondents first interviewed in the supplementary new sample in Wave 1 and/or reinterviewed in Wave 2 above: N=308.
- Respondents interviewed in Waves 1-3: N=561
Supplementary survey of new respondents (telephone) in territories under Ukraine’s government control: N=882.

II. Focus groups

(Conducted with eight participants in each group, equally divided by locations. Recruitment was organized to maximize sociodemographic variation within groups).

Round 1: Between Wave 1 and Wave 2

FG-1: Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast: Sep 21, 2023

FG-2: Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk (West Ukraine): Sep 20, 2023

FG-3: Kherson and Donetsk Oblast (South and East Ukraine): Sep 19, 2023

FG-4: Kharkiv and Mykolaiv (Northeast and South Ukraine): Sep 18, 2023

Round 2: Between Wave 2 and Wave 3

FG-1: Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast: March 25, 2024

FG-2: Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk (West Ukraine): March 26, 2024

FG-3: Kherson and Donetsk Oblast (South and East Ukraine): March 27, 2024

FG-4: Kharkiv and Mykolaiv (Northeast and South Ukraine): March 28, 2024

Related Publications

“Victory-in-freedom: Ukraine’s democratic resilience in the face of war,” Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing (June 2024) (with Serhii Dembitskyi) DOI: 10.15407/sociology2024.02.040

“Geosocietal Support for Democracy: Survey Evidence from Ukraine,” Perspectives on Politics (April 2024) (with Serhii Dembitskyi) DOI: 10.1017/S1537592724000422

“Anchored in Freedom: Ukrainians’ Will to Fight Back in Harder Times,” Program on New Approaches to Research on Security – Eurasia (PONARS Eurasia), Policy memo No. 902 (June 2024) (with Serhii Dembitskyi)

“For Victory in Freedom: Why Ukrainian Resilience to Russian Aggression Endures,” Program on New Approaches to Research on Security – Eurasia (PONARS Eurasia), Policy memo No. 863 (November 2023) (with Serhii Dembitskyi)

“War and Meaning of Democracy: Survey and Focus Groups Evidence from Ukraine,” Paper presented at the at the Central East European International Studies Association and International Studies Association Joint International Conference 2024 (June 21, 2024), Rijeka, Croatia.

“For Victory in Freedom: Why Ukrainian Resilience to Russian Aggression Endures,” Program on New Approaches to Research on Security – Eurasia (PONARS Eurasia), Spring Policy Conference (online), Washington, DC, George Washington University, March 31, 2024.

“Endgame Scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine War,” Invited presentation, Domestic Politics of Support for Ukraine in Europe Research Workshop, Claremont McKenna College, February 23, 2024.

“Victory-in-Freedom: A View from Kyiv,” Invited presentation, the University of San Diego Department of Political Science and International Relations Pearson-Chambers Symposium on “The World at War,” February 22, 2024.